The December 2024 consensus forecasts reflect a more cautious economic outlook, with downward revisions across inflation, growth, and interest rate projections in the short term. However, modest upward adjustments for the medium term suggest a gradual recovery in economic conditions. Businesses should prepare for continued challenges in the near term while positioning themselves for potential opportunities as the economy stabilises. Strategic planning and prudent financial management remain important during this period.
Each of the graphs below illustrates how consensus economic forecasts evolve over each quarter. These visual representations depict whether the consensus expectation has increased or decreased when compared to the previous quarter.
Short-Term Adjustments (2024–2025):
Consensus inflation expectations for Q4 2024 have been revised downward by -0.40%, reflecting weaker price pressures than previously anticipated.
Similar downward revisions of -0.30% are observed for Q1 and Q2 2025, suggesting slower inflation momentum.
Modest upward adjustments of +0.10% are projected for Q3 and Q4 2025, indicating a potential rebound in inflationary pressures.
Medium-Term Stability (2026–2028):
Consensus inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised upward by +0.10%, while projections for 2028 remain unchanged.
Short-Term Revisions (2024–2025):
Consensus economic growth forecasts for Q4 2024 have been revised downward by -0.30%, reflecting weaker-than-expected activity.
Similar downward revisions of -0.20% are evident for Q1 and Q2 2025, highlighting persistent headwinds to growth.
Consensus growth forecasts for Q3 2025 remain unchanged, while Q4 2025 sees a slight upward revision of +0.10%, indicating a potential recovery
Medium-Term Stability (2026–2028):
Consesnsus projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 remain unchanged, reflecting stabilisation in long-term growth trends.
Short-Term Adjustments (2024–2025):
The consensus RBA cash rate forecast for Q4 2024 has been revised downward by -0.02%, reflecting a slightly more accommodative stance than previously expected.
Further downward revisions are observed for Q1 2025 (-0.06%), Q2 2025 (-0.09%), Q3 2025 (-0.10%), and Q4 2025 (-0.15%), suggesting a more aggressive easing cycle in response to subdued inflation and growth.
Medium-Term Projections (2026–2028):
Modest upward revisions in consensus forecasts are evident for 2026 (+0.01%) and 2027 (+0.18%), while 2028 sees an upward adjustment of +0.12%.
Disclaimer
This document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice. The economic forecasts and analyses presented are based on consensus data from FocusEconomics. These projections are subject to change and uncertainty.
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