Comparing consensus forecast data between the June 2024 and March 2024 quarters highlights key trends in shareholder value:
- Inflation Expected marginal increases in inflation signal a cautious environment for shareholders. While businesses may see some revenue growth due to higher prices, rising costs and the likelihood of RBA rate hikes could pressure margins and valuations.
- Economic Growth: Gradual increases in GDP forecasts may signal improving economic conditions, potentially boosting shareholder confidence.
- RBA Cash Rate: Rising cash rates expectations raise the cost of capital for businesses, reduce consumers’ purchasing power, potentially leading to slower economic growth and impacting corporate revenues.
Each of the graphs below illustrates how consensus economic forecasts evolve over each quarter. These visual representations depict whether the consensus expectation has increased or decreased when compared to the previous quarter.
Consensus inflation is expected to increase by 0.1% in most periods except for Q2 2025, Q3 2025, 2026, and 2028, where no change is forecasted.
Marginal increases in consensus GDP growth forecasts are noted from Q4 2024 through Q4 2025, with the largest increase of 0.2% in Q4 2025. No changes are projected for 2026, 2027, and 2028, indicating a steady long-term outlook.
The consensus cash rate shows consistent increases in the RBA Cash Rate except for 2028.
Disclaimer
This document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice. The economic forecasts and analyses presented are based on consensus data from FocusEconomics. These projections are subject to change and uncertainty.
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